The government had on Wednesday issued a statement dismissing report of Moody's Analytics.
The economy is unlikely to accelerate much in 2014 though the downside risks have receded in recent months with falling inflation and a narrower current account deficit, he said, adding there is no sign of a lift in the real economy.
Moody's Analytics said that the reduced political stability and the need for consensus building that is inherent with a coalition government, might erode investor confidence in the near term.
The opinion of a Junior Associate Economist employed with Moody's Analytics has been splashed all across implying it as the opinion of Moody's Analytics.
The Omicron variant of Covid-19 adds new uncertainties to the global economic outlook but much will depend on its speed of transmission, hospitalisation and death rates, and also the effectiveness of vaccines, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its commentary titled 'Much to Learn About Omicronast', Moody's Analytics said although the variant appears to spread "remarkably quickly", it will be at least two more weeks before more will be known about this new variant. "The Omicron variant of COVID-19 adds new measures of uncertainty to the outlook for the global economy, although it is too soon to adequately quantify that risk.
The second wave of COVID-19 may have a more lasting damage on the Indian economy and exports will once again be the foundation for recovery, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its report titled 'APAC Economic Outlook: The Delta Roadblock', Moody's Analytics said social distancing is weighing on the current quarter, but economic recovery will resume by the year-end. The Delta variant of COVID-19 is among factors now adversely affecting economies of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, but the economic hit from the current round of movement restrictions in the region will not be as severe as the recessions in the second quarter of last year.
'The biggest point of contention is market access for US agricultural and dairy products.'
A recession is unlikely in the APAC region in the coming year, although the area will face headwinds from higher interest rates and slower global trade growth, Moody's Analytics said on Thursday. In its analysis titled 'APAC Outlook: A Coming Downshift', Moody's said India is headed for slower growth next year more in line with its long-term potential. On the upside, inward investment and productivity gains in technology as well as in agriculture could accelerate growth.
The 25 per cent US tariffs, plus a penalty for Russian imports, could dent India's GDP growth by 30 basis points in the current fiscal, but the higher duty is unlikely to significantly affect India's domestic demand-driven economy, Barclays said on Thursday. If the 25 per cent tariff, announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, is implemented from August 1, the effective average US import tariff on Indian goods will rise to 20.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, as per Barclays estimates.
As the largest producer of vaccines in the world, with 60 per cent of the global share, India is well-positioned to use its existing manufacturing capabilities to contribute to mass vaccine production and distribution needs for other countries in addition to meeting its domestic requirements, said Moody's.
It said early polls suggested the BJP should win the largest number of votes and seats, giving it the opportunity to form a government.
Moody's Analytics had said Prime Minister Narendra Modi must keep BJP members in check or risk "losing domestic and global credibility".
The Indian economy has bottomed out and the recovery is on the anvil although the days of 8 per cent growth are "gone", Moody's Analytics said.
The Indian economy grew by 4.7 per cent in the April-June quarter last year and the growth rate was also 4.7 per cent for full 2013-14.
India's political infighting is denting business confidence.
Amid wholesale price-based inflation ticking up to 7.5 per cent year-on-year in May due to supply-side factors, the agency said it will cause further "headaches" at the RBI.
Moody's has cautioned the government against targeting double-digit gross domestic production expansion saying any growth beyond 7 per cent without reforms will fuel inflation that will result in 'more painful' future adjustments.
The land acquisition bill is a catalyst to investment and passing the bill will improve India's business environment.
Govt to strongly pitch for better rating, to argue India has successfully weathered its problems and govt capacity on growth remains high.
India's economy is likely to grow by 12 per cent in 2021 following a 7.1 per cent contraction last year, as near-term prospects have turned more favourable, Moody's Analytics said. A stronger than expected December quarter GDP growth of 0.4 per cent following a 7.5 per cent contraction in the previous three months has turned India's near-term prospects more favourable, it said. Domestic and external demand has been on the mend since the easing of restrictions, which has led to improved manufacturing output in recent months.
The official GDP data for the September quarter will be released on Friday.
It has blamed lack of political will for the slow reform process.
'Modi must keep his members in check or risk losing domestic and global credibility,' Moody's warned.
Externally, the global economy is stabilising, with better growth is expected this year.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi led-NDA government in its third term must tackle the problem of unemployment in the country, especially in the unorganised sector and in small and medium enterprises, former NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Monday. Kumar also emphasised that the government now must finalise the four labour codes as it has been delayed beyond expectations. "We must recognise that post-COVID economic recovery has been a K-shaped recovery.
The note was authored by Faraz Syed, an associate economist with Moody's Analytics.
The government needs to play greater role in taming inflation by reining in spending, as the Reserve Bank of India's tightening of its policy rates will have little impact on checking price rise, global research firm Moody's said on Friday.
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
Fitch Ratings said with GDP growth of 6.5% and WPI-based inflation of 8.8%, India may have entered into a stagflation period in 2011-12.
Wholesale price-based inflation rate fell to a 3-year low of (-) 3.48 per cent in May on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items, strengthening the case for continuing with the pause in rate hike in the coming months of the current fiscal. This is the second straight month when WPI has been in the negative zone mainly on account of a higher base and falling prices of fuel and manufactured goods. Food prices also eased during May. In May, 2022 WPI inflation was at 16.63 per cent. Last month, it was (-) 0.92 per cent.
The outlook for India's rating would improve if fiscal, inflation and infrastructure metrics get better, a global report said.
Britain's foreign secretary said Prime Minister David Cameron would take note of the assessment in the context of Modi's plans for the development of the Indian economy.
The Russian-Ukraine war can hit the global supply chains that are already constrained due to the pandemic and the worst impact will be on ongoing chip shortage because the warring nations brutally control supplies of key raw materials that go into making semiconductors, warns a report. Since Russia controls as much as 44 per cent of global palladium suppplies, Ukraine produces a significant 70 per cent of the global supply of neon -- the two key raw materials that go into making chips. The markets can expect the global chip shortage, that began with the pandemic, to worsen if the military conflict lingers on, says a Moody's Analytics report on Friday.
A week before the US presidential elections, Republican nominee Donald Trump has taken a slender lead of one percentage point against his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton for the first time since May in a major national tracking poll.
Gold, which was hovering around $1,321 an ounce in January 2019, has already breached $1,600 per ounce in the past few sessions to a seven-year high.
On the occasion of Women's Day, Vijay S Patil, 33, shares a beautiful story about his mother, who beat odds to educate her children.
India's service sector proportionately much larger than China's, while its investment and industrial-production shares are much lower
What has hit sentiment further is a draft proposal by the government to increase vehicle insurance premiums for financial year 2022-23 (FY23). Third-party motor insurance premiums have not been increased over the last two years and if this is approved, insurance costs for specific segments could rise by a fifth. The worst impacted is the 350cc and above two-wheeler segment, where premiums are up 21 per cent. Royal Enfield (Eicher Motor) is the market leader in the segment. The premiums in the 150-350cc two-wheeler category are also being inc
The 30-share Sensex ended 271 points higher to end at 28,930 and the 50-share Nifty climbed 76 points to close at 8,776.
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